DCF Model
Educational
Model Inputs
Preset
Token & Market
$
Model Parameters
%
Required rate of return
%
Must be < discount rate
Protocol Revenue
Max 9 years
$
Current annualised protocol revenue or fees
Year-by-Year Growth Rates
Valuation Results
Awaiting inputs
Current Market
—
per token
Current Market Cap—
Circulating Supply—
Discount Rate Applied—
Forecast Horizon—
Current P/S Ratio—
Intrinsic Value
—
per token
Intrinsic Market Cap—
Sum of DCF Cash Flows—
Terminal Value (PV)—
TV % of Total—
Intrinsic P/S Ratio—
Valuation Forecast
—
—
Enter inputs to compare
Price Gap (per token)
—
Market Cap Gap
—
← swipe to see more →
| Period | Growth | Revenue | Present Value | Cumulative PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fill in the inputs above — results populate automatically | ||||
Sensitivity Analysis
Discount rate × Growth rate adjustment
← swipe to see more →
Intrinsic Token Price
| Growth ↕ / Rate → | — | — | — | — | — |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | |||||
Upside / Downside vs Current Price
| Growth ↕ / Rate → | — | — | — | — | — |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set current price to see % | |||||
Green = above current price · Red = below · Growth rows shift all year rates by ±pp simultaneously
⚠ Educational only. Protocol revenue ≠ token holder earnings in all structures. Preset data is approximate — verify with official docs. Not financial advice.
CAPM Inputs
Expected Return = RFR + β × (Rm − RFR)
%
US 10Y Treasury yield · ~4.3% currently
%
Expected BTC annual return · 30% = conservative
Risk Assessment
Enter inputs above
The CAPM rate is your required return — the minimum yield that compensates for this asset's risk. Use it as the Discount Rate in the DCF tab.
Beta Reference — vs BTC (Crypto Market Proxy)
| Asset Class | Examples | Typical β Range | CAPM Rate at Rm=30%, RFR=4.3% |
Interpretation |
|---|
Methodology
A plain-English walkthrough of how this DCF model works, what each input means, where to find the numbers, and what the limitations are when applying it to crypto protocols.
01What is a DCF?
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimates what a stream of future cash flows is worth today, by discounting them back at a required rate of return. The core idea: a dollar earned next year is worth less than a dollar today — because of risk, inflation, and opportunity cost.
In crypto, we apply this to protocol revenue — fees generated by the protocol (e.g. trading fees on Uniswap, borrow interest on Aave, perpetuals fees on GMX). We ask: if this protocol keeps generating and growing revenue, what is that stream of income worth right now?
02The Core Formula
Intrinsic MC = Σ [ Revenue(t) ÷ (1 + r)^t ] + Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)^N
Intrinsic Price = Intrinsic MC ÷ Circulating Supply
rDiscount rate — your required annual return. Crypto is high-risk: typically 20–50%. Higher = more conservative (lower) valuation.
tYear number, from 1 to N. Each year's revenue is divided by (1+r)^t to convert it to present value.
NForecast horizon — how many years you project explicitly. Beyond this, the Terminal Value takes over.
03Terminal Value — Gordon Growth vs Exit Multiple
Terminal Value (TV) represents everything beyond your forecast horizon. It typically makes up 50–80% of total DCF value, so your assumptions here matter enormously.
Gordon Growth: TV = Revenue(N) × (1 + tg) ÷ (r − tg)
Exit Multiple: TV = Revenue(N) × Multiple
tgTerminal growth rate — the assumed perpetual annual growth rate after year N. Must be strictly less than the discount rate r. Typically 2–5%.
⚠ Terminal Value is extremely sensitive to the gap between r and tg. A 1pp change in either can shift your valuation by 20–40%. This is a feature of the Gordon Growth formula, not a modelling error. Use sensitivity analysis to stress-test it.
04Where to Find the Numbers
Protocol Revenue
Token Terminal, DefiLlama (Fees tab), Dune Analytics. Use annualised 30-day or 90-day trailing revenue — not TVL, which is not revenue.
Circulating Supply
CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. Use circulating supply, not fully diluted — vesting unlocks dilute future holders and the fully diluted figure inflates your valuation.
Growth Rates
Protocol governance forums, investor reports, historical revenue trajectory. Be honest — most protocols do not sustain 100%+ growth beyond year 2.
Discount Rate
DeFi blue chips: 20–30%. Mid-cap protocols: 30–45%. Newer or riskier: 50%+. This is subjective — it reflects your risk assessment of the protocol surviving and growing.
05Limitations of DCF for Crypto
⚠ Protocol revenue ≠ token holder cash flows in most structures. Unlike a stock, most tokens do not carry a legal claim on protocol revenue. A high intrinsic value from DCF does not guarantee token price appreciation — it only shows what the revenue stream would be worth if it accrued directly to token holders. Always check the tokenomics.
DCF works best as a relative and directional tool — comparing two protocols, stress-testing assumptions, or building a range of fair values. Treat the output as one data point, not a price target. Pair it with P/S multiples, TVL ratios, and on-chain metrics for a fuller picture.
⚠ Educational tool only. Not financial advice.
Glossary
Definitions for every term used in this model — from the foundational concepts to the crypto-specific nuances.
Core DCF Concepts
Discounted Cash Flow
DCF
A valuation method that estimates the present value of a stream of future cash flows by discounting them at a required rate of return. The result is what those future earnings are worth today, in today's dollars.
Present Value
PV
The current value of a future cash flow. A payment of $100 received in year 3 is worth less than $100 today because of risk and opportunity cost.
PV(t) = Cash Flow(t) ÷ (1 + r)^t
Discount Rate
r
The annual rate of return you require to justify the investment risk. A higher discount rate means future cash flows are worth less today — it makes the model more conservative. For DeFi protocols this is typically 20–50%, reflecting the elevated risk vs traditional assets.
In corporate finance this is often called the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), which blends the cost of equity and debt. In crypto, where there is no debt structure, it is more accurately described as the required return on equity (or simply the investor's hurdle rate).
Weighted Avg. Cost of Capital
WACC
In traditional finance, WACC is the blended cost a company pays to finance its assets, weighted by the proportion of debt and equity in its capital structure.
WACC = (E/V × Re) + (D/V × Rd × (1 − Tax))
For crypto protocols with no debt, WACC collapses to the cost of equity — i.e. the return investors expect. The discount rate in this model is a proxy for that.
Terminal Value
TV
The estimated value of all cash flows beyond the explicit forecast horizon, captured in a single number. It represents the assumption that the protocol keeps operating (and generating revenue) indefinitely after year N.
Terminal Value often accounts for 50–80% of a protocol's total DCF value — which is why the discount rate and terminal growth rate assumptions are so influential.
Gordon Growth Model
GGM
A formula for calculating Terminal Value under the assumption that cash flows grow at a constant perpetual rate (tg) after the forecast period. Requires tg < r — if terminal growth equals or exceeds the discount rate, the formula breaks down (produces a negative or infinite value).
TV = Revenue(N) × (1 + tg) ÷ (r − tg)
Exit Multiple
—
An alternative way to calculate Terminal Value — instead of assuming perpetual growth, you assume the protocol is "sold" at the end of the forecast period at a fixed multiple of its revenue. Common in venture and private equity contexts.
TV = Revenue(N) × Multiple
Set Exit Multiple to 0 in this model to use Gordon Growth instead. A multiple of 10–20× is common for high-growth software; DeFi protocols typically trade at lower multiples.
Token & Market Terms
Circulating Supply
CS
The number of tokens currently in public circulation — held by investors, not locked in team/investor vesting schedules or protocol reserves. This is what you should use in the model. Using fully diluted supply would assume all future tokens are already in market hands, which inflates the per-token valuation.
Fully Diluted Valuation
FDV
The hypothetical market cap if every token that will ever exist (max supply) were in circulation today. FDV = Current Price × Max Supply. High FDV relative to market cap signals significant future dilution from vesting unlocks — check the token's vesting schedule.
Market Capitalisation
MC
The total market value of all circulating tokens. MC = Price × Circulating Supply. In this model, the intrinsic MC is what DCF says the protocol is worth; if the intrinsic MC > current MC, the token may be undervalued (under the model's assumptions).
Protocol Revenue
—
Fees earned by the protocol itself — distinct from fees paid to liquidity providers or stakers. For a DEX, this is the portion of swap fees that flow to the protocol treasury or token holders. Sources: Token Terminal, DefiLlama (Fees tab).
Do not confuse with TVL (Total Value Locked), which is a liquidity metric, not a revenue metric.
Price-to-Sales
P/S
A valuation multiple: Market Cap divided by annualised Protocol Revenue. A lower P/S may signal relative undervaluation versus peers. Most DeFi protocols trade between 5× and 50× P/S — very high P/S (>100×) implies strong growth expectations are already priced in.
P/S = Market Cap ÷ Annualised Revenue
Sensitivity & Risk Terms
Sensitivity Analysis
—
A technique for understanding how the output of a model changes as key input assumptions vary. In this tool, the sensitivity matrix shows intrinsic token price across a range of discount rates (±10pp) and growth rate adjustments (±20pp). It reveals which assumptions drive the valuation most — and how fragile or robust your thesis is.
Basis Point
bp / pp
A percentage point (pp) is a direct change in a percentage — e.g. moving from 25% to 27% is a +2pp change. A basis point (bp) is 1/100th of a percentage point. In the sensitivity table, rows are labelled in percentage points (e.g. +10pp means all growth rates increase by 10 percentage points).
Upside / Downside
—
The percentage difference between intrinsic price (from the model) and the current market price. Upside = (Intrinsic − Current) / Current. A positive figure means the model implies the token is undervalued; negative means overvalued — under the model's assumptions, which may be wrong.
Upside = (Intrinsic Price − Current Price) ÷ Current Price
⚠ Educational reference only. Definitions are simplified for clarity — consult primary sources for formal definitions. Not financial advice.
Coming Soon
Terminal Pro
A draggable multi-panel analytics terminal — live price charts, funding rate heatmaps, protocol revenue, token vesting, treasury data, and a command bar. All in one screen.
Notify me when it launches
Funding Rates
Perpetuals · 1D & Annualised · CEX + DEX · Auto-refreshes on load
Live Data
Show:
| Asset | Binance Ann. |
Bybit Ann. |
OKX Ann. |
Hyperliquid Ann. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading live rates… |
| Asset | Hyperliquid 1D · Ann. |
dYdX v4 1D · Ann. |
Settlement interval |
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| Loading live rates… | |||
How to read: Go long on Best Long venue (lowest / most negative rate — you receive funding) and short on Best Short venue (highest positive rate). Net Spread is the annualised arb yield if rates hold. Not financial advice.
| # | Asset | Best Long | Best Short | Long (Ann.) | Short (Ann.) | Net Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calculating arbs… | ||||||
DEX-only arbs across the deepest perp DEXs: Hyperliquid, dYdX v4, Aevo & Drift (Solana). 20 most liquid assets. Long lowest-rate DEX · Short highest-rate DEX. Net annualised spread = your potential arb yield.
| # | Asset | Best Long (DEX) | Best Short (DEX) | Long (Ann.) | Short (Ann.) | Net Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calculating DEX arbs… | ||||||
Period:
Sort:
■ Positive · longs pay shorts (you receive if short)
■ Negative · shorts pay longs (you pay if short)
| Loading… visit Funding Rates tab first |
Financials
Revenue Heatmap
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Sector Split
7D Revenue
| Protocol Revenue Ranking | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Protocol | Sector | 7D Revenue | 7D Change | Annualized Rev ↓ | P/S Ratio | |
| Loading protocols… | ||||||
Source: DeFiLlama Fees API · Revenue = protocol earnings after payouts · P/S = Market Cap ÷ Annualized Fees (gross) · All figures USD
Protocol Treasuries
| # | Protocol | Excl. Native Token | Scale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading treasuries… |
Source: DeFiLlama Treasury API · On-chain holdings only · Values in USD
Perp Markets
Spot Markets